2025 Mid-Year Market Review & Outlook

In our 2025 Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook video, we discuss critical themes affecting investment strategies and market developments for the second half of the year. We delve into Trump’s tariff policies and their unexpected impacts, inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy, the continued outperformance of U.S. markets, the growing influence of artificial intelligence, and notable geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Ukraine. Our conversation highlights the ongoing challenges and opportunities in these areas and provides our insights for investors navigating today’s complex landscape. (Recorded on June 30, 2025.)

Monthly Market Insights: June 2025

Market action has been dictated by developments in trade negotiations, making May a volatile, yet positive, month for US equities. Although hard economic data and US corporate profits remain broadly positive, stretched valuation multiples and the looming threat of tariffs make us cautious towards equity market returns going forward. In this uncertain macroeconomic environment, investors may benefit from taking a defensive posture by diversifying into high-quality assets to mitigate downside risk.

Monthly Market Insights: May 2025

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement upended markets in April, briefly sending the S&P 500 into bear market territory, before a temporary pause on the most punitive tariffs sparked a relief rally. While equities recovered by month-end, investors now face a higher baseline of policy-driven risk, with soft data deteriorating and hard data showing early signs of strain.

Monthly Market Insights: April 2025

Markets traded lower in March as uncertainty around trade policy weighed on consumer and business sentiment. Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement exacerbated the market selloff, causing most US equity indexes to reach bear market territory. The draconian change in trade policy has significantly raised the odds of a 2025 recession, while weakening sentiment and restrictive monetary policy should continue to weigh on risk assets.

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