Category: Investment Insights

It has been an eventful first seven months of the year with a new conflict breaking out in the Middle East, an earnings boom led by an acceleration in AI infrastructure spending, and bond yields moving higher against a backdrop of solid economic growth, sticky inflation, and mounting deficits. In our 2026 Mid-Year Review, we discuss the forces that have shaped the equity market rally while sharing our outlook for the remainder of the year. (recorded on August 11, 2026)

At the headline level July was quiet, with the S&P 500 little changed, yet the month proved eventful. Leadership rotated violently, conflict between the US and Iran reignited energy risk, and the new Fed chair held rates steady over dissents favoring hikes, underscoring a market where resilient earnings are increasingly set against mounting fragility.

June marked the end of an eventful first half of 2026, defined by a historic outperformance in semiconductors, a hawkish pivot at the Fed under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, and milestone events across the AI landscape. As we enter the second half, we remain constructive on equities while monitoring the risks that have emerged alongside the rally.

May extended April’s rebound supported by strong first-quarter earnings, the ongoing AI capex cycle, and expanding liquidity. Beneath the surface, breadth has narrowed, inflation concerns have resurfaced and the Iran conflict remains unresolved, underscoring an advance that is accompanied by growing risks.

US equity markets staged a powerful rebound in April, with the S&P 500 returning 10.42% as a ceasefire with Iran and stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings reignited investor enthusiasm.

Equity markets came under pressure in March as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted global energy supply chains and introduced material uncertainty to the inflation and growth outlook. Despite the near-term turbulence, corporate fundamentals remain sound, and we discuss the key risks and opportunities shaping the path forward.