Author: dss_AJD

Market action has been dictated by developments in trade negotiations, making May a volatile, yet positive, month for US equities. Although hard economic data and US corporate profits remain broadly positive, stretched valuation multiples and the looming threat of tariffs make us cautious towards equity market returns going forward. In this uncertain macroeconomic environment, investors may benefit from taking a defensive posture by diversifying into high-quality assets to mitigate downside risk.

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement upended markets in April, briefly sending the S&P 500 into bear market territory, before a temporary pause on the most punitive tariffs sparked a relief rally. While equities recovered by month-end, investors now face a higher baseline of policy-driven risk, with soft data deteriorating and hard data showing early signs of strain.

Markets traded lower in March as uncertainty around trade policy weighed on consumer and business sentiment. Trump’s April 2^nd tariff announcement exacerbated the market selloff, causing most US equity indexes to reach bear market territory. The draconian change in trade policy has significantly raised the odds of a 2025 recession, while weakening sentiment and restrictive monetary policy should continue to weigh on risk assets.

After months of post-election optimism, February saw a shift in sentiment as concerns over trade policy and government workforce reductions drove volatility. Growth stocks posted steep losses, while capital rotated into international markets. With uncertainty still elevated, markets may remain volatile in the months ahead.

US stocks posted solid gains in January despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot and escalating geopolitical tensions generating intra-month volatility. The release of DeepSeek’s Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) model created short-term pressure on AI infrastructure stocks; however, we believe it should generate strong tailwinds across the AI landscape in the long term. Strong corporate profits, a healthy US consumer, and a firm labor market support our optimistic view on the economy and markets for 2025;  however, escalating trade policy uncertainty will require investors to maintain caution through the year.

Element Pointe is pleased to present our Market Outlook: Top Ten Investment Themes for 2025. In this piece, we highlight our views on the economy and explore some of the key topics that we believe will impact markets in 2025.